Neil Lupton (NeilLup@AOL.COM)
Mon, 20 Jul 1998 20:04:57 EDT
In a message dated 7/20/98 2:14:38 PM, 405geezer@IGG-TX.NET wrote:
<<The numbers are from 1997 and show the percentages of Scouts
who are still registered after 1 year, 2 years, etc.
1 year (boys who joined in '96) ...... 63%
2 years (boys who joined in '95) ...... 36%
3 years (boys who joined in '94) ...... 22%
4 years (boys who joined in '93) ...... 14%
5 years (boys who joined in '92) ...... 9%
This is really interesting information. Thank you so much for sharing it.
Forgive me for analyzing it like the scientist I sometimes pretend to be.
This information shows an almost perfect first order decay curve with a time
constant of 16.3 months If fact, it is incredibly perfect -- I wish I could
generate data like this in designed experiments. A first order decay curve
means that the number of losses in any time period are a function only of the
value of the variable at the beginning of the time period. It is similar to
the decay of a radioactive material. As John Marmet said, we lost 38% of the
Scouts in each age group each year.
Now some thoughts on how this might affect us as leaders.
1) These losses are actually less than I had heard. I understood that our
time constant was about 12 months, so that we lost 50% of the boys in each age
group each year. So we may be getting better.
2) This data suggests that we dare not be lazy with older boys. If we
compare 100 first year Scouts with 100 fourth year Scouts the retention
statistics are very similar -- we will lose, on the average, 38 boys from each
group each year.
3) The data also suggests that each year, the Scouts are evaluating the
program that they receive THAT YEAR. On the average, 38% of the first year
boys don't like the first year program enough to stay for a second year. And
38% of the second year boys don't like the second year program enough to stay
for a third year. In contrast to what we sometimes hear, once we get them
past the first year, it isn't enough. We have to be as good providing the
third year program for third year boys as we are providing the first year
program for first year boys.
I hope that some of the other scientists in the group will evaluate this data
and see if you agree or disagree with my analysis and conclusions.
But it's great data. Thank you so much for sharing it.
Terry Howerton Sakima Group, Inc. SCOUTER Magazine Kansas City