Statistics don't lie, but.....
Craig Bond (CraigB1051@AOL.COM)
Sat, 18 Mar 1995 00:24:00 -0500
Scott A. Begin suggested declining birth rate as the reason for the
BSA membership decline of the 1970s, citing "Between 1960 and 1970
the birth rate fell from 23 per 1000 population to 18 per 1000
population. In numbers, this was about 525,000 births a year
decrease (from 4.3 million to 3.8 million). Figures quoted from the
1994 Almanac from the MS Bookshelf '94. Anyone with statistics to
back me up or shoot holes in my theory is welcome to do so."
Unfortunately, Scott, I must. The birthrates cited originate with
the National Center for Health (US DHHS) statistics which, in 1970,
changed the way it calculated and reported birthrates, excluding
non-residents of the US from 1970 on. The 1960/1970 decline is
attributable more to that change than any other.
Additionally, while the birthrate declined 1970/1980, it increased
in the next decade and now is declining again. Comparing this with
the BSA membership does not give a good correlation (my SPSS
package is in storage at the moment and I really don't have
sufficient data to do a good analysis, but my eyes are still pretty
good at judging these things, especially when I look at a Harvard
Graphics bar chart comparison).
Anyway, it was a good run at the answer.
Terry Howerton Sakima Group, Inc. SCOUTER Magazine Kansas City